BofA Global Research has raised its Brent crude price forecast for this year and next, saying tighter oil supply and demand balances in 2022 could briefly push oil to $ 100 a barrel.
“We believe the robust recovery in global oil demand will outpace supply growth over the next 18 months, further draining inventories and paving the way for higher oil prices,” the bank said in a statement. note dated Sunday.
The bank raised its Brent crude oil price forecast to $ 68 a barrel from $ 63 earlier. In 2022, he expects Brent to average $ 75 a barrel against its previous estimate of $ 60.
The bank noted that U.S. shale would likely respond to these higher prices by ramping up production and that Brent would return to an average of $ 65 a barrel by 2023.
The oil market is likely to remain in deficit for the foreseeable future, with an average deficit of 0.9 million barrels per day (bpd) over the next six quarters, he said.
BofA expects consumption growth to rebound strongly this year and next to 5.6 million and 3.6 million bpd respectively, the fastest since at least the 1970s.
As demand is expected to recover at a rapid pace over the next few months, the bank has warned that large OPEC + reserve capacity and a likely return of Iranian barrels will cap oil prices this year.
Oil prices edged up on Monday, supported by strong demand during the summer driving season and a pause in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal that could lead to a resumption of crude supplies from the country’s producer. OPEC.